Analysing the consequences of progressive Urban Spatial cycles to evaluate urban land use policy

Urban expansion patterns have always evolved with various successive Urban Spatial Cycles (USCs). Both densification and dispersion strategies have shown limited success in optimizing local benefits such as affordable housing, access to amenities, a good environment, and low-cost transport in the cities of developing countries. However, in such countries, a systematic assessment of USCs and strategic utilization of the analyses, are not usually part of the land use policy-making process. The outcomes of the policy decisions are therefore less than optimal. This paper aims to explore the impact of progressive USCs on housing price, travel time, fuel consumption and environment. Based on geospatial data, this study examines the progress of USCs in Ahmedabad city. Landscape matrices and local perceptions are used to quantify the consequences of USCs using the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Ahmedabad's case study shows that the densification cycle is firmly active in the inner suburb and is closely associated with housing price inflation as well as the increase in travel time and fuel consumption. The cycles of fragmentation and sprawl in the outer suburban area are consistent with environmental degradation and travel frequency. Findings suggest that USCs-based policy assessment can be a useful tool to trade-off the cost and benefit of urban expansion.