Impacts of COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict on Food Supply Chain: A Case Study from Bread Supply Chain in Egypt

The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war have significantly impacted global supply chains, including the food supply chain, in numerous countries. As one of the leading wheat importers, Egypt has been adversely affected by the simultaneous occurrence of these two events. Baladi bread is an integral part of the daily diet in Egypt, so any disruption affecting its availability can have a severe impact on the country's food security. This study aims to simulate the causes and effects of potential disruptions that could occur, such as increased transportation time, unavailability of sourcing, and surge in demand due to lockdowns and panic buying. The East Cairo region was chosen as a case study to model the Baladi bread supply chain. A discrete-event simulation model was developed using anyLogistix software (version 2.15.1) for this study. Five key performance indicators were selected to evaluate, analyze, and compare the outcomes of each scenario in terms of the performance and operation of the food supply chain: service level by product, lead time, demand backlog, average daily available inventory in the mills, and on-hand inventory of wheat in the silos. The results indicate that the supply chain has been significantly impacted by the disruptions caused by these two events, leading to decreased availability of Baladi bread, unmet demand, extended lead times, and high backlogs. By utilizing the research findings, proactive strategies can be developed to minimize the impact of such disruptions in the future and maximize food security and supply chain resilience.