Analysis of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on influenza during the Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic by time-series forecasting

被引:4
作者
Kim, Hyun Kyung [1 ]
Min, Kyung-Duk [2 ]
Cho, Sung-il [1 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Seoul Natl Univ, Grad Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Publ Hlth Sci, 1 Gwanak Ro, Seoul 08826, South Korea
[2] Chungbuk Natl Univ, Coll Vet Med, Cheongju, South Korea
[3] Seoul Natl Univ, Inst Hlth & Environm, 1 Gwanak Ro, Seoul 08826, South Korea
基金
新加坡国家研究基金会;
关键词
COVID-19; Influenza; Non-pharmaceutical intervention; SARIMA; Social distancing; Time-series forecasting; SCHOOL CLOSURE; COMMUNITY; COVID-19; INTERVAL; VIRUS;
D O I
10.1186/s12879-023-08640-y
中图分类号
R51 [传染病];
学科分类号
100401 ;
摘要
BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in South Korea during the 2019-2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. The social distancing measures, as effective non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), adopted to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 might have influenced influenza activity. We evaluated IFV(influenza virus) activity during the COVID-19 pandemic and the effect of NPI intensity on influenza transmission.MethodsIFV activity and epidemic duration during COVID-19 pandemic were predicted under a counterfactual scenario with no NPIs against COVID-19. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model was used to quantify the effects of NPIs on the transmission of influenza virus. Influenza-like illness/1000 outpatients and IFV positivity rate from the 2011-2012 to 2021-2022 seasons were used in this study.ResultsComparison of the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 seasonal influenza activities with those in 2013-2019 showed that COVID-19 outbreaks and associated NPIs such as face mask use, school closures, and travel restrictions reduced the influenza incidence by 91%. Without NPIs against COVID-19, the rates of influenza-like illness and IFV positivity would have been high during the influenza epidemic season, as in previous seasons. NPI intensity decreased the transmission of influenza; the magnitude of the reduction increased as the intensity of social-distancing measures increased (weak social distancing; step-by-step daily recovery: 58.10%, strong social distancing; special quarantine measures: 95.12%).ConclusionsOur results suggest that NPIs and personal hygiene can be used to suppress influenza transmission. NPIs against COVID-19 may be useful strategies for the prevention and control of influenza epidemics.
引用
收藏
页数:12
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