A spatial model with vaccinations for COVID-19 in South Africa

被引：1

作者：

Dresselhaus, Claudia ^{[1
]}

Fabris-Rotelli, Inger ^{[1
]}

Manjoo-Docrat, Raeesa ^{[3
]}

Brettenny, Warren ^{[3
,5
]}

Holloway, Jenny ^{[2
]}

Abdelatif, Nada ^{[4
]}

Thiede, Renate ^{[1
]}

Debba, Pravesh ^{[2
]}

Dudeni-Tlhone, Nontembeko ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Pretoria, Dept Stat, Pretoria, South Africa

[2] CSIR, Stellenbosch, South Africa

[3] Univ Witwatersrand, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, Johannesburg, South Africa

[4] South African Med Res Council, Biostat Res Unit, Cape Town, South Africa

[5] Nelson Mandela Univ, Dept Stat, Gqeberha, South Africa

来源：

SPATIAL STATISTICS | 2023年 / 58卷

基金：

新加坡国家研究基金会;

关键词：

COVID-19; Spatial model; South Africa; Vaccinations; Mobility; SEIR; DYNAMICS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.spasta.2023.100792

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Since the emergence of the novel COVID-19 virus pandemic in December 2019, numerous mathematical models were published to assess the transmission dynamics of the disease, predict its future course, and evaluate the impact of different control measures. The simplest models make the basic assumptions that individuals are perfectly and evenly mixed and have the same social structures. Such assumptions become problematic for large developing countries that aggregate heterogeneous COVID-19 outbreaks in local areas. Thus, this paper proposes a spatial SEIRDV model that includes spatial vaccination coverage, spatial vulnerability, and level of mobility, to take into account the spatial-temporal clustering pattern of COVID-19 cases. The conclusion of this study is that immunity, government interventions, infectiousness and virulence are the main drivers of the spread of COVID-19. These factors should be taken into consideration when scientists, public policy makers and other stakeholders in the health community analyse, create and project future disease prevention scenarios. Such a model has a place for disease outbreaks that may occur in future, allowing for the inclusion of vaccination rates in a spatial manner.

引用

页数：12

共 44 条

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