Short term photovoltaic power prediction based on transfer learning and considering sequence uncertainty
被引:5
作者:
Wang, Jiahui
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Taiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Elect & Power Engn, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, Peoples R ChinaTaiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Elect & Power Engn, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, Peoples R China
Wang, Jiahui
[1
]
Yan, Gaowei
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Taiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Elect & Power Engn, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, Peoples R ChinaTaiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Elect & Power Engn, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, Peoples R China
Yan, Gaowei
[1
]
Ren, Mifeng
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Taiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Elect & Power Engn, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, Peoples R ChinaTaiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Elect & Power Engn, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, Peoples R China
Ren, Mifeng
[1
]
Xu, Xinying
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Taiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Elect & Power Engn, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, Peoples R ChinaTaiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Elect & Power Engn, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, Peoples R China
Xu, Xinying
[1
]
Ye, Zefu
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机构:
GeMeng Int Energy Co Ltd, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, Peoples R ChinaTaiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Elect & Power Engn, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, Peoples R China
Ye, Zefu
[2
]
Zhu, Zhujun
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GeMeng Int Energy Co Ltd, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, Peoples R ChinaTaiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Elect & Power Engn, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, Peoples R China
Zhu, Zhujun
[2
]
机构:
[1] Taiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Elect & Power Engn, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, Peoples R China
[2] GeMeng Int Energy Co Ltd, Taiyuan 030024, Shanxi, Peoples R China
With the increasing proportion of solar grid-connected, the establishment of an accurate photovoltaic (PV) power prediction model is very important for safe operation and efficient dispatching of a power grid. Considering the multi-level periodicity of PV power caused by many factors, such as seasons and weather, a short-term PV power prediction model based on transfer component analysis is designed by introducing the idea of transfer learning. In order to measure the uncertainty of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and power sequence, a novel algorithm considering weather similarity and power trend similarity is proposed. First, the intrinsic trend is measured by extracting permutation entropy, variance, and mean from the historical PV power sequence. Second, weighting of NWP is accomplished based on the Pearson correlation coefficient. PV power data are divided into different clusters by K-medoids clustering. At the same time, the transfer component analysis alleviates the time-varying problem of data distribution caused by multi-level time periodicity and effectively improves the prediction accuracy of the model. Finally, simulation experiments are carried out on the PV power output dataset (PVOD). The results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is better than the traditional methods, and the accuracy and applicability of the proposed method are verified.
机构:
Univ Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, MalaysiaUniv Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
Tey, Kok Soon
Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi
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Univ Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, MalaysiaUniv Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi
Mekhilef, Saad
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Univ Malaya, Fac Engn, Dept Elect Engn, Power Elect & Renewable Energy Res Lab PEARL, Kuala Lumpur 50603, MalaysiaUniv Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
Mekhilef, Saad
Idris, Moh Yamani Idna
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机构:
Deakin Univ, Sch Engn, Geelong, Vic 3216, AustraliaUniv Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
Idris, Moh Yamani Idna
Van Deventer, Willem
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Deakin Univ, Sch Engn, Geelong, Vic 3216, AustraliaUniv Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
Van Deventer, Willem
Horan, Bend
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机构:
Deakin Univ, Sch Engn, Geelong, Vic 3216, AustraliaUniv Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
机构:
Univ Colorado, Dept Elect Comp & Energy Engn, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
Natl Renewable Energy Lab, Boulder, CO 80309 USAUniv Texas Dallas, Dept Mech Engn, Richardson, TX 75080 USA
Hodge, Bri-Mathias
Lu, Siyuan
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机构:
IBM TJ Watson Res Ctr, Data Intens Phys Analyt Res Grp, Yorktown Hts, NY 10598 USAUniv Texas Dallas, Dept Mech Engn, Richardson, TX 75080 USA
Lu, Siyuan
Hamann, Hendrik F.
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机构:
IBM TJ Watson Res Ctr, Yorktown Hts, NY 10598 USA
IBM TJ Watson Res Ctr, Phys Analyt & Cognit IoT Program, Yorktown Hts, NY 10598 USAUniv Texas Dallas, Dept Mech Engn, Richardson, TX 75080 USA
机构:
Univ Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, MalaysiaUniv Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
Tey, Kok Soon
Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, MalaysiaUniv Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi
Mekhilef, Saad
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Malaya, Fac Engn, Dept Elect Engn, Power Elect & Renewable Energy Res Lab PEARL, Kuala Lumpur 50603, MalaysiaUniv Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
Mekhilef, Saad
Idris, Moh Yamani Idna
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Deakin Univ, Sch Engn, Geelong, Vic 3216, AustraliaUniv Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
Idris, Moh Yamani Idna
Van Deventer, Willem
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Deakin Univ, Sch Engn, Geelong, Vic 3216, AustraliaUniv Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
Van Deventer, Willem
Horan, Bend
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Deakin Univ, Sch Engn, Geelong, Vic 3216, AustraliaUniv Malaya, Fac Comp Sci & Informat Technol, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
机构:
Univ Colorado, Dept Elect Comp & Energy Engn, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
Natl Renewable Energy Lab, Boulder, CO 80309 USAUniv Texas Dallas, Dept Mech Engn, Richardson, TX 75080 USA
Hodge, Bri-Mathias
Lu, Siyuan
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
IBM TJ Watson Res Ctr, Data Intens Phys Analyt Res Grp, Yorktown Hts, NY 10598 USAUniv Texas Dallas, Dept Mech Engn, Richardson, TX 75080 USA
Lu, Siyuan
Hamann, Hendrik F.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
IBM TJ Watson Res Ctr, Yorktown Hts, NY 10598 USA
IBM TJ Watson Res Ctr, Phys Analyt & Cognit IoT Program, Yorktown Hts, NY 10598 USAUniv Texas Dallas, Dept Mech Engn, Richardson, TX 75080 USA