The within-individual lagged effects of time spent incarcerated on substance use: a nationally representative longitudinal study from the United States

Background: The effects of incarceration on future substance use is well documented in the extant literature. Nevertheless, scholars have yet to examine the within-individual correspondence between the change in months incarcerated over time and the change in substance use over time. Aim: Considering this gap in the literature, the purpose of the current study is to evaluate whether within-individual changes in months incarcerated is associated with subsequent within-individual changes in substance use. Method: The current study examines the influence of the change in the number months incarcerated (2004-2009) on alcohol, cigarette, marijuana, and hard drug use (2005-2010) using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97). The within-individual effects were estimated using four lagged latent growth models. Result: The results demonstrated that within-individual change in the months spent incarcerated influenced the change in the likelihood of substance use over time. Within-individual increases in the number of months an individual spent incarcerated over time (2004-2009) was associated with within-individual decreases in the frequency of cigarette and marijuana use, but within-individual increases in the likelihood of hard drug use from 2005 to 2010. Conclusion: These findings suggest that contemporary treatment modalities might not be effective for individuals with a history of using hard drugs.