Transient Modeling of Topology-based Worms in Networks with Link Interference

A continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model is developed for the probabilistic transient analysis of topology-based worm propagation in networks with arbitrary topologies, background traffic, link errors, and error recovery protocols. The CTMC model is analyzed using the numerical Markov chain transient analysis uniformization technique. Our specific use-case deals with radio frequency (RF) links and future worm propagation in that area. Time distribution and related measures are provided for a worm infecting a given node. An accompanying state space compression technique is developed, significantly reducing the space and time requirements of the worm propagation analysis as a function of the topology and initial infection. Examples are presented to demonstrate computational space and time requirements and expose encountered practical challenges. The developed transient CTMC worm propagation model provides a general, flexible framework for the detailed probabilistic analysis of complex computer worm propagations.