Spatiotemporal differentiation and spatial correlation of agricultural total factor productivity in China: an estimation based on the data of prefecture-level cities

The improvement of agricultural TFP is critical to promoting the high-quality development of agriculture. This paper described and identified the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and spatial correlation of China's agricultural TFP in 283 prefecture-level cities from 2001 to 2018 using the Metafroniter-Malmquist and Moran index. The results showed that: (1) From 2001 to 2018, China's agricultural TFP was 6.64%, and its growth was mainly driven by agricultural technological progress. The contribution of agricultural technological efficiency was small. The growth law showed an "inverted U-shaped" growth trend of first rising and then falling. (2) China's agricultural TFP has significant characteristics of regional unbalanced growth. (3) The growth rate of agricultural TFP in most prefecturelevel cities is medium and slow, and most prefecture-level cities relied on agricultural technological progress to promote growth. (4) The agricultural TFP of various cities showed a significant spatial correlation phenomenon of "high-high" or "low-low." This study has significant theoretical and practical value for maintaining the stable growth of China's agricultural TFP and promoting the high-quality development of China's agriculture.