Modelling potential natural pest control ecosystem services provided by arthropods in agricultural landscapes

Natural pest control has the potential to reduce pesticide use. Therefore, it has an essential role to play in the transition towards a more sustainable agriculture. For the prediction of natural pest control, it is essential to understand the distribution of the species providing this ecosystem service. The presence of pests and natural enemies depends on a combination of abiotic and biotic factors, each playing a determining role at different spatial scales. We developed a hierarchical model composed of environmental predictors including bioclimatic and land use variables at the European scale, as well as landscape complexity and biotic interactions at the landscape scale. This paper presents the predicted distribution of 111 species from seven different arthropod families (two pest aphid species and their natural enemy species) in an agricultural region in northern Germany. The hierarchical framework allows determining the capacity of landscapes to support pest control ecosystem services provided by arthropods at the local scale and informs on vulnerable areas or potential mismatches between natural pest control demand and supply. Thereby it can support the design of local scale measures for habitat improvement, biodiversity conservation and the increase of ecosystem services supply. The hierarchical approach can be adapted to other agroecosystems and leaves potential for further adaptations to improve the prediction of pests and their natural enemy distribution, dynamics and factors influencing their spatial distribution.