Clinical Uncertainty Influences Antibiotic Prescribing for Upper Respiratory Tract Infections: A Qualitative Study of Township Hospital Physicians and Village Doctors in Rural Shandong Province, China

Objective: This study aimed to explore how clinical uncertainty influences antibiotic prescribing practices among township hospital physicians and village doctors in rural Shandong Province, China. Methods: Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 30 township hospital physicians and 6 village doctors from rural Shandong Province, China. A multi-stage random sampling method was used to identify respondents. Conceptual content analysis together with Colaizzi's method were used to generate qualitative codes and identify themes. Results: Three final thematic categories emerged during the data analysis: (1) Incidence and treatment of Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTIs) in township hospitals and village clinics; (2) Antibiotic prescribing practices based on the clinical experience of clinicians; (3) Influence of clinical uncertainty on antibiotic prescribing. Respondents from both township hospitals and village clinics reported that URTIs were the most common reason for antibiotic prescriptions at their facilities and that clinical uncertainty appears to be an important driver for the overuse of antibiotics for URTIs. Clinical uncertainty was primarily due to: (1) Diagnostic uncertainty (establishing a relevant diagnosis is hindered by limited diagnostic resources and capacities, as well as limited willingness of patients to pay for investigations), and (2) Insufficient prognostic evidence. As a consequence of the clinical uncertainty caused by both diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty, respondents stated that antibiotics are frequently prescribed for URTIs to prevent both prolonged courses or recurrence of the disease, as well as clinical worsening, hospital admission, or complications. Conclusion: Our study suggests that clinical uncertainty is a key driver for the overuse and misuse of prescribing antibiotics for URTIs in both rural township hospitals and village clinics in Shandong province, China, and that interventions to reduce clinical uncertainty may help minimize the unnecessary use of antibiotics in these settings. Interventions that use clinical rules to identify patients at low risk of complications or hospitalization may be more feasible in the near-future than laboratory-based interventions aimed at reducing diagnostic uncertainty.