Future renewable energy targets in the EU: Impacts on the German transport

The transport sector is at the center of discussions on accelerating the energy transition due to its still increasing contribution to greenhouse gas emissions worldwide; therefore, the EU has set binding targets for the use of renewable energy in transport through the Renewable Energy Directive. To analyze the economic impact of these targets, we developed an optimization model that considers bio-and electricity-based fuel options, various transport sectors, and future policy requirements. Our study of the German transport sector found that imported alternative fuels play a key role in reducing fossil fuel usage. We also identify two technological and managerial obstacles: policymakers need to prioritize the rapid electrification of vehicles in the near future; and in the distant future, more attention is needed in research for new technologies in commercial transport. Although our findings are tailored to Germany, the employed approach can be transferred to other models and countries.