Detection and prediction of land use changes and population dynamics in the Gorganrud River basin, Iran

Analyzing land use/land cover change is a fundamental tool for evaluating the environmental consequences of human activities. This research was conducted to detect and predict likely land use changes in the Gorganrud River basin, Iran, and to estimate past and future population growth as a driving force in land use change and degradation. First, land use maps for 1999, 2009, and 2017 were prepared. Then, the likely land use changes for 2030 and 2040 were predicted using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) in TERRSET software. Results indicate that the percentage of changes in agricultural and residential areas, bare lands, and semi-dense forests from 1999 to 2017 were +4.2, +0.62, +1.76, and +3.15, respectively, while the percentage of changes in rangelands, dense forests, and water bodies were -8.7, -0.37, and -0.63. Analysis of changes from 2017 to 2040 indicates that the percentage of changes in croplands, dense forests, and bare lands may reach -4.42, -2.35, and -2.74, respectively. Conversely, the area of rangelands, semi-dense forests, water bodies, and residential areas would likely increase by +7.78%, +1.02%, +0.04%, and + 0.7%, respectively. The population density in 2011 and 2016 was 94 and 97 persons/km(2), respectively, whereas the 5-year population growth rate was 3.5%. Better conservation practices to prevent deforestation and inappropriate growth of residential areas, in line with forest replantation to prevent the conversion of semi-dense forests into rangelands, are some of the management strategies required in the study area. Population control and redistribution are other prescribed actions based on the research findings.