China's growing human displacement risk caused by floods under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming and beyond

被引:1
作者
Qi, Wei [1 ]
Feng, Lian [1 ]
Liu, Junguo [1 ]
Zhu, Xueping [2 ]
Liu, Yanli [3 ]
Kuang, Xingxing [1 ]
Xie, Zhigao [4 ]
机构
[1] Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
[2] Taiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Water Resource Sci & Engn, Taiyuan 030024, Peoples R China
[3] Nanjing Hydraul Res Inst, State Key Lab Hydrol, Water Resources & Hydraul Engn, Nanjing 210029, Peoples R China
[4] East Water Author Shenzhen Municipal, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
关键词
human displacement; flood; climate change; PROTECTION; MIGRATION; BENEFITS; NETWORK;
D O I
10.1088/1748-9326/ad0a1d
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Human displacement is one of the most pressing global issues, and China has the world's largest population affected by floods. Yet, the spatial and temporal variations of China's Human Displacement Risk (HDR) caused by floods remain unclear. Here, we investigated China's HDR caused by extreme floods under different global warming levels, including 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C and beyond. We developed an approach to estimate human displacement caused by floods in China. Based on this method, our findings indicate that China's HDR will increase by similar to 10.7 (similar to 11.0) times under 1.5 degrees C (2.0 degrees C) warming, and each 0.5 degrees C warming will increase HDR by 3 million on average. These great increases are mainly driven by climate change rather than population variations. Our results also reveal that the relationship between human displacement and increasing percentage of flood protection levels follows an exponential function. Additionally, we found that increasing China's current flood protection standard by similar to 46% (1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C) and similar to 59% (4.5 degrees C) would reduce future HDR to the historical period level. This study provides valuable insights into China's HDR, which can aid in adaptive flood risk management amid the trend of shifting to a warmer and more extreme climate.
引用
收藏
页数:11
相关论文
共 41 条
[1]   Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world [J].
Alfieri, Lorenzo ;
Bisselink, Berny ;
Dottori, Francesco ;
Naumann, Gustavo ;
de Roo, Ad ;
Salamon, Peter ;
Wyser, Klaus ;
Feyen, Luc .
EARTHS FUTURE, 2017, 5 (02) :171-182
[2]   The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 [J].
Bertozzi, Andrea L. ;
Franco, Elisa ;
Mohler, George ;
Short, Martin B. ;
Sledge, Daniel .
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2020, 117 (29) :16732-16738
[3]   Migration as adaptation [J].
Black, Richard ;
Bennett, Stephen R. G. ;
Thomas, Sandy M. ;
Beddington, John R. .
NATURE, 2011, 478 (7370) :447-449
[4]   Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets [J].
Burke, Marshall ;
Davis, W. Matthew ;
Diffenbaugh, Noah S. .
NATURE, 2018, 557 (7706) :549-+
[5]   Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100 [J].
Chen, Yidan ;
Guo, Fang ;
Wang, Jiachen ;
Cai, Wenjia ;
Wang, Can ;
Wang, Kaicun .
SCIENTIFIC DATA, 2020, 7 (01)
[6]   Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming [J].
Dottori, Francesco ;
Szewczyk, Wojciech ;
Ciscar, Juan-Carlos ;
Zhao, Fang ;
Alfieri, Lorenzo ;
Hirabayashi, Yukiko ;
Bianchi, Alessandra ;
Mongelli, Ignazio ;
Frieler, Katja ;
Betts, Richard A. ;
Feyen, Luc .
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 2018, 8 (09) :781-+
[7]   Do we prioritize floodplains for development and farming? Mapping global dependence and exposure to inundation [J].
Dryden, Rachel ;
Anand, Mira ;
Lehner, Bernhard ;
Fluet-Chouinard, Etienne .
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS, 2021, 71
[8]   Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) [J].
Frieler, Katja ;
Lange, Stefan ;
Piontek, Franziska ;
Reyer, Christopher P. O. ;
Schewe, Jacob ;
Warszawski, Lila ;
Zhao, Fang ;
Chini, Louise ;
Denvil, Sebastien ;
Emanuel, Kerry ;
Geiger, Tobias ;
Halladay, Kate ;
Hurtt, George ;
Mengel, Matthias ;
Murakami, Daisuke ;
Ostberg, Sebastian ;
Popp, Alexander ;
Riva, Riccardo ;
Stevanovic, Miodrag ;
Suzuki, Tatsuo ;
Volkholz, Jan ;
Burke, Eleanor ;
Ciais, Philippe ;
Ebi, Kristie ;
Eddy, Tyler D. ;
Elliott, Joshua ;
Galbraith, Eric ;
Gosling, Simon N. ;
Hattermann, Fred ;
Hickler, Thomas ;
Hinkel, Jochen ;
Hof, Christian ;
Huber, Veronika ;
Jagermeyr, Jonas ;
Krysanova, Valentina ;
Marce, Rafael ;
Schmied, Hannes Mueller ;
Mouratiadou, Ioanna ;
Pierson, Don ;
Tittensor, Derek P. ;
Vautard, Robert ;
van Vliet, Michelle ;
Biber, Matthias F. ;
Betts, Richard A. ;
Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ;
Deryng, Delphine ;
Frolking, Steve ;
Jones, Chris D. ;
Lotze, Heike K. ;
Lotze-Campen, Hermann .
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, 2017, 10 (12) :4321-4345
[9]   Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene - HYDE 3.2 [J].
Goldewijk, Kees Klein ;
Beusen, Arthur ;
Doelman, Jonathan ;
Stehfest, Elke .
EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DATA, 2017, 9 (02) :927-953
[10]   Floods in China, COVID-19, and climate change [J].
Guo, Yuming ;
Wu, Yao ;
Wen, Bo ;
Huang, Wenzhong ;
Ju, Ke ;
Gao, Yuan ;
Li, Shanshan .
LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH, 2020, 4 (10) :E443-E444