The wear status of pantograph carbon strips has a crucial impact on the receiving quality of high-speed trains, and accurate wear rate prediction is essential for timely maintenance and replacement. In this study, the wear mechanism of Cu-impregnated carbon strip is analyzed through micro-analysis, and an improved method for calculating wear rate is proposed by enhancing the original Holm-Archard adhesive wear model. The proposed approach considers the collecting current of the pantograph, burning arc, and contact loss rate of the pantograph, thereby improving the accuracy of wear rate calculation. Moreover, the study validates the relationship between contact resistance and contact force by comparing the model's results with experimental data. Furthermore, the wear profile of MCS is predicted and calculated by considering the wear position of the zigzag catenary on the sliding plate, which provides a more comprehensive analysis of the wear behavior of MCS. To validate the proposed model, actual wear and operation data of an eight-unit high-speed train's pantograph are employed, and the results indicate an average absolute error of 0.19 mm at the deepest wear depth (-16 mm-16 mm) of MCS, which demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model.
