Artificial Intelligence as a promising technology. Past and present trends in the Federal Republic

The question adressed in this paper is how to explain the ups and downs in the development of Artificial Intelligence since its inception. The focus is on the development of Artificial Intelligence in the Federal Republic of Germany since the 1970s, with particular attention to its current dynamics. It is assumed that simply attributing this dynamism to the rapid advances in information technology and the various methods and concepts of Artificial Intelligence over the past decades is not sufficient, for, from a sociological perspective, this approach represents a limited, technology-centered explanation. Drawing on insights from the social science field of innovation research, it is argued that Artificial Intelligence should be understood as a "promising technology". Looked at in this way, Artificial Intelligence, in its various developmental phases, is repeatedly driven by promises of its exceptional performance and problem-solving capabilities for economic and societal challenges. This applies particularly to the ongoing AI hype since the 2010s, which has reached unprecedented proportions due to "solutionist" hopes regarding the ecological crisis on the one hand, and the widespread integration of AI software into everyday life on the other hand. While the next "AI winter" may not be imminent, past experiences suggest that not all technological promises or fears will be fully realized in this case either.