Microhabitat conditions drive uncertainty of risk and shape neophobic responses in Trinidadian guppies, Poecilia reticulata

In response to uncertain risks, prey may rely on neophobic phenotypes to reduce the costs associated with the lack of information regarding local conditions. Neophobia has been shown to be driven by information reliability, ambient risk and predator diversity, all of which shape uncertainty of risk. We similarly expect environmental conditions to shape uncertainty by interfering with information availability. In order to test how environmental variables might shape neophobic responses in Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata), we conducted an in situ field experiment of two high-predation risk guppy populations designed to determine how the 'average' and 'variance' of several environmental factors might influence the neophobic response to novel predator models and/or novel foraging patches. Our results suggest neophobia is shaped by water velocity, microhabitat complexity, pool width and depth, as well as substrate diversity and heterogeneity. Moreover, we found differential effects of the 'average' and 'variance' environmental variables on food- and predator-related neophobia. Our study highlights that assessment of neophobic drivers should consider predation risk, various microhabitat conditions and neophobia being tested. Neophobic phenotypes are expected to increase the probability of prey survival and reproductive success (i.e. fitness), and are therefore likely linked to population health and species survival. Understanding the drivers and consequences of uncertainty of risk is an increasingly pressing issue, as ecological uncertainty increases with the combined effects of climate change, anthropogenic disturbances and invasive species.