Analysis of uncertainty propagation path of fire-induced domino effect based on an approach of layered fuzzy Petri nets e

被引：5

作者：

Guo, Liping ^{[1
,2
]}

Wang, Zhirong ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Nanjing Tech Univ, Coll Safety Sci & Engn, Nanjing 211816, Peoples R China

[2] Lanzhou Univ Technol, Coll Petrochem Technol, Lanzhou 730050, Peoples R China

来源：

CHEMICAL ENGINEERING SCIENCE | 2023年 / 268卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Layered fuzzy Petri nets; Domino effects; Uncertainty propagation quantification; Fuzzy reasoning rules; METHODOLOGY; ESCALATION; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ces.2022.118410

中图分类号：

TQ [化学工业];

学科分类号：

0817 ;

摘要：

In the chemical industry parks, large amounts of hazardous substances are processed and stored, while the leakage of hazardous substances can easily trigger a domino effect. Probit models were widely used to assess the escalation probability of domino effects, but ignoring the synergistic effects in higher-order propagation. In this paper, based on expert knowledge to identify the propagation rules of domino effects, a layered fuzzy Petri net (LFPN) is proposed to model the multi-order domino effect propagation paths. In the process of fuzzy reasoning, the calculation method of LFPN relevant parameters is provided. Finally, a case study demonstrates the validity of the proposed method for fire-induced domino effects, while the research content contributes to an in-depth understanding of the characteristics of domino effects and provides a theoretical basis for blocking the evolutionary process of domino effects.(c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页数：10