Feature-based intermittent demand forecast combinations: accuracy and inventory implications

被引:3
|
作者
Li, Li [1 ]
Kang, Yanfei [1 ]
Petropoulos, Fotios [2 ]
Li, Feng [3 ]
机构
[1] Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] Univ Bath, Sch Management, Bath, England
[3] Cent Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Stat & Math, Beijing, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Intermittent demand forecasting; forecast combinations; time series features; diversity; empirical evaluation; TIME-SERIES; PERFORMANCE; SELECTION; MODEL; CATEGORIZATION; DISTRIBUTIONS; COMBINE;
D O I
10.1080/00207543.2022.2153941
中图分类号
T [工业技术];
学科分类号
08 ;
摘要
Intermittent demand forecasting is a ubiquitous and challenging problem in production systems and supply chain management. In recent years, there has been a growing focus on developing forecasting approaches for intermittent demand from academic and practical perspectives. However, limited attention has been given to forecast combination methods, which have achieved competitive performance in forecasting fast-moving time series. The current study examines the empirical outcomes of some existing forecast combination methods and proposes a generalised feature-based framework for intermittent demand forecasting. The proposed framework has been shown to improve the accuracy of point and quantile forecasts based on two real data sets. Further, some analysis of features, forecasting pools and computational efficiency is also provided. The findings indicate the intelligibility and flexibility of the proposed approach in intermittent demand forecasting and offer insights regarding inventory decisions.
引用
收藏
页码:7557 / 7572
页数:16
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