Risk analysis of rainfall erosion on upland adjacent to riparian zone of the Three Gorges Reservoir

The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is an artificial riparian ecosystem and influenced on its soil erosion. However, the probability and magnitude of the erosion on upland adjacent to riparian zone and its impacts on the TGR are still unclear. In this research, we determined the relationship between minute-scale rainfall erosivity and soil erosion from three replicated upland bare plots (5 m x 20 m for each) in Zhong County, southwest of China, from 2017 to 2019 (short-term), and estimated the rainfall erosion based on the daily-scale rainfall erosivity from 1992 to 2015 (long-term). We performed generalized extreme value (GEV) modeling to quantify three risk elements (scenario, probability-magnitude relation, consequences) and predicted the erosion risks. The results indicated that, over the short-term, wet season increased the average runoff depth and soil loss by a factor of 1.6 (p < 0.01) and 1.4 (p < 0.01), respectively. Low and rare rainfall erosivity (5 years < return period <= 20 years) caused the erosion event with relative low occurrence probability (return period > 5 years) to dominantly contribute the total erosion (>65%) in dry season. Common and normal rainfall erosivity (return period = 5 years) caused the common erosion events (return period <= 2 years) to contribute nearly 50% of the total erosion in wet season. Over the long-term, extreme rainfall erosivity (1621 MJ.mm.ha(-1).h(-1)) in dry season was predicted to be more effective on upland erosion, but a uniform pattern of erosion contribution of incremental rainfall return periods was estimated in wet season. Our findings improve the understanding of the uncertainty of upland-surface hydrologic processes in the TGR, and could provide useful risk management or ecological restoration strategies for the soil and water conservationists.