Analysis of a stochastic coronavirus (COVID-19) Levy jump model with protective measures

被引：5
|
作者：
Caraballo, Tomas [1 ]
El Fatini, Mohamed [2 ]
El Khalifi, Mohamed [2 ]
Rathinasamy, Anandaraman [3 ,4 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Seville, Fac Matemat, Dept Ecuac Diferenciales & Anal Numer, Tarfia S-N, Seville 41012, Spain
[2] Ibn Tofail Univ, Lab PDEs, Stochast Modelling & Stat Grp, ASG, Kenitra, Morocco
[3] Anna Univ, Dept Math, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
[4] Anna Univ, Dept Math, MIT Campus, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
来源：
STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS | 2023年 / 41卷 / 01期
关键词：
Stochastic differential equation; Levy noise; COVID-19; extinction; persistence in mean; Kunita's inequality; SIR EPIDEMIC MODEL; DYNAMICS; DRIVEN;
D O I：
10.1080/07362994.2021.1989312
中图分类号：
O29 [应用数学];
学科分类号：
070104 ;
摘要：
This paper studied a stochastic epidemic model of the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Severe factors impacting the disease transmission are presented by white noise and compensated Poisson noise with possibly infinite characteristic measure. Large time estimates are established based on Kunita's inequality rather than Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality for continuous diffusions. The effect of stochasticity is taken into account in the formulation of sufficient conditions for the extinction of COVID-19 and its persistence. Our results prove that environmental fluctuations can be privileged in controlling the pandemic behavior. Based on real parameter values, numerical results are presented to illustrate obtained results concerning the extinction and the persistence in mean of the disease.
引用
收藏
页码：45 / 59
页数：15
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