Modeling and Simulating an Epidemic in Two Dimensions with an Application Regarding COVID-19

We derive a reaction-diffusion model with time-delayed nonlocal effects to study an epidemic's spatial spread numerically. The model describes infected individuals in the latent period using a structured model with diffusion. The epidemic model assumes that infectious individuals are subject to containment measures. To simulate the model in two-dimensional space, we use the continuous Runge-Kutta method of the fourth order and the discrete Runge-Kutta method of the third order with six stages. The numerical results admit the existence of traveling wave solutions for the proposed model. We use the COVID-19 epidemic to conduct numerical experiments and investigate the minimal speed of spread of the traveling wave front. The minimal spreading speeds of COVID-19 are found and discussed. Also, we assess the power of containment measures to contain the epidemic. The results depict a clear drop in the spreading speed of the traveling wave front after applying containment measures to at-risk populations.