Scenario Development for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Utilization Concepts Using Steel Mill Exhaust Gases with Linear Optimization Models

Utilizing exhaust gases from the steel mill generation to produce chemicals presents a promising avenue for carbon capture and utilization (CCU) concepts. Employing a model-based mathematical approach, specifically mixed-integer linear programming (MILP), enables the identification of optimal production concepts. To evaluate the long-term feasibility under uncertain future conditions, the construction of hypothetical scenarios to depict possible future states is necessary. This study introduces novel and tailored scenarios for a specific CCU concept aimed at producing methanol, ammonia, urea and/or acetic acid from steel mill exhaust gases by the year 2040 to enhance decision-making processes for identifying the optimal concept. These scenarios provide comprehensive insights into potential future conditions, spanning technical, economic and ecological domains. Unlike prior studies that focus on individual key factors, this approach involves analyzing the interactions of 24 identified key factors within the investigated CCU concept. The method yields five distinct scenarios: (1) Business as Usual (BAU), (2) CO2 Reduction and Renewable Energy Target (RE-Boom), (3) Technical Improvement and Market Booming (Market-Boom), (4) Energy and Market Crisis (Crisis) and (5) Hydrogen Booming (H2-Boom). These five scenarios can be directly integrated into MILP models, enhancing the significance of the optimization results for identifying the optimal CCU concept.