Primary production modeling identifies restoration targets for shifting shallow, eutrophic lakes to clear-water regimes

Benthic primary production (BPP) plays an important functional role in lakes, improving water quality by stabilizing clear-water regimes. Shallow, eutrophic lakes lacking BPP communities can be difficult to restore because self-stabilizing feedbacks of phytoplankton dominance can impede the establishment of BPP. BPP in lakes is light limited, and ecosystem models can provide guidance for determining the water clarity necessary to re-establish BPP dominance. We developed a multi-tiered framework for the restoration of shallow, eutrophic lakes that incorporates multiple turbidity sources, lake morphometry, and water-level fluctuations to determine water-clarity thresholds above which BPP dominance may be established. We present a case study applying this restoration target framework to a large, shallow lake (Utah Lake, Utah, USA), where water clarity was greatly impeded by sediment resuspension and high algal biomass. Our analysis, which used commonly available lake-monitoring data, indicated that a return to BPP dominance is possible in Utah Lake, particularly if external nutrient loading to its shallow, wind-protected bays is reduced. Our novel framework incorporates regime shift theory to improve shallow, eutrophic lake restoration efforts. By incorporating ecological feedbacks when identifying the restoration targets necessary for returning a lake to a self-stabilizing, clear-water regime, this restoration target framework offers economical and logistical advantages over strategies that focus solely on phytoplankton management or fish biomanipulation.