Alpha-fetoprotein predicts the treatment efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors for gastric cancer patients

Background Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are commonly used in conjunction with chemotherapy to improve treatment outcomes for patients with gastric cancer. Since AFP could influence immunity by both inhibiting natural killer (NK) cells and regulating negatively the function of dendritic cells, we evaluated the influence of baseline serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels on the curative effect of ICIs in advanced gastric cancer (AGC) patients. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 158 AGC patients who underwent ICI treatment. The patients were divided into high and low groups based on the AFP threshold of 20 ng/ml. The efficacy of ICI treatment was assessed using objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). Results The higher levels of baseline AFP were found to be associated with a decrease in the effectiveness of ICIs, as evidenced by a DCR of 50.0% in the group with high AFP levels compared to 87.7% in the group with low AFP levels (P < 0.001). Further analysis using Kaplan-Meier survival techniques indicated that a high AFP level was linked to shorter progression-free survival (PFS) (P < 0.001) and overall survival (OS) (P = 0.001) in AGC individuals receiving ICIs. After propensity score matching, a log rank test revealed that the high AFP group had a decrease in median PFS (P = 0.011) and median OS (P = 0.036) compared to the low AFP group. The high AFP levels also showed its association with shorter PFS and OS in the subgroup analysis of ICI plus chemotherapy patients. Conclusions Baseline AFP levels may predict immune checkpoint inhibitor treatment efficacy in AGC patients.