Do current pregnancy weight gain guidelines balance risks of adverse maternal and child health in a United States cohort?

Background: The Institute of Medicine pregnancy weight gain guidelines were developed without evidence linking high weight gain to maternal cardiometabolic disease and child obesity. The upper limit of current recommendations may be too high for the health of the pregnant individual and child. Objectives: The aim of this study was to identify the range of pregnancy weight gain for pregnancies within a normal body mass index (BMI) range that balances the risks of high and low weight gain by simultaneously considering 10 different health conditions. Methods: We used data from an United States prospective cohort study of nulliparae followed until 2 to 7 y postpartum (N = 2344 participants with a normal BMI). Pregnancy weight gain z-score was the main exposure. The outcome was a composite consisting of the occurrence of >= 1 of 10 adverse health conditions that were weighted for their seriousness. We used multivariable Poisson regression to relate weight gain z-scores with the weighted composite outcome. Results: The lowest risk of the composite outcome was at a pregnancy weight gain z-score of -0.6 SD (standard deviation) (equivalent to 13.1 kg at 40 wk). The weight gain ranges associated with no more than 5%, 10%, and 20% increase in risks were -1.0 to -0.2 SD (11.2-15.3 kg), -1.4 to 0 SD (9.4-16.4 kg), and -2.0 to 0.4 SD (7.0-18.9 kg). When we used a lower threshold to define postpartum weight increase in the composite outcome (>5 kg compared with >10 kg), the ranges were 1.6 to -0.7 SD (8.9-12.6 kg), -2.2 to -0.3 SD (6.3-14.7 kg), and <0.2 SD (<17.6 kg). Compared with the ranges of the current weight gain guidelines (-0.9 to -0.1 SD, 11.5-16 kg), the lower limits from our data tended to be lower while upper limits were similar or lower. Conclusions: If replicated, our results suggest that policy makers should revisit the recommended pregnancy weight gain range for individuals within a normal BMI range.