Quantifying modeling uncertainties in seismic analysis of dams: Insights from an international benchmark study

被引:11
|
作者
Hariri-Ardebili, Mohammad Amin [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Maryland, Coll Comp Math & Nat Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA
[2] Natl Inst Stand & Technol NIST, Earthquake Engn Grp, Gaithersburg, MD 20899 USA
来源
EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING & STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS | 2024年 / 53卷 / 03期
关键词
benchmark study; concrete dams; modeling variability; seismic analysis; uncertainty quantification; CONCRETE GRAVITY DAMS; SHAKING TABLE; ARCH DAMS; QUANTIFICATION; RISK; DAMAGE; DECONVOLUTION; PROBABILITY; COLLAPSE; DEMANDS;
D O I
10.1002/eqe.4064
中图分类号
TU [建筑科学];
学科分类号
0813 ;
摘要
Advances in nonlinear dynamic analysis of dams have not completely resolved concerns over modeling confidence and analysis accuracy. Verification and validation offer accuracy assessment, but uncertainties persist during performance evaluation due to both epistemic (modeling) and aleatory (parametric) sources. Epistemic uncertainties arise from simplifications and modeling techniques. This paper addresses epistemic uncertainties in a gravity dam seismic analysis using data from the International Comnission on Large Dams (ICOLD) benchmark study. While the benchmark formulation included the finite element model of the dam, mechanical material properties, and dynamic loads, participants retained the flexibility to opt for best-practice modeling assumptions, simplifications, and other specifics. Notable response variability emerged, particularly in crack profiles and damage predictions. This study examines sources of variability, quantifying modeling uncertainty for the benchmark problem. More specifically, the modeling variability is quantified using the logarithmic standard deviation, also known as dispersion. This metric enables its incorporation into other seismic risk assessment and fragility studies. Under relatively low-intensity motion (peak ground acceleration [PGA] of 0.18 g in this case), modeling dispersion of 0.45, 0.30, 0.32, and 0.30 were calculated for the maximum dynamic crest displacement, maximum hydrodynamic pressure at the heel, heel and crest maximum acceleration, respectively. Additionally, the dispersion of the failure PGA was determined to be 0.7. Findings underscore the need for systematic seismic response modeling in dam engineering to enhance prediction accuracy. A better understanding of the sources and magnitudes of modeling uncertainties can help improve the reliability of dam seismic analysis and contribute to the development of more effective risk assessment and mitigation strategies.
引用
收藏
页码:1168 / 1194
页数:27
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Seismic analysis of hybrid tailings dams: Insights into stability and responses
    Aswathi, T. S.
    Jakka, Ravi S.
    BULLETIN OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, 2024, 83 (02)
  • [2] Seismic analysis of hybrid tailings dams: Insights into stability and responses
    T. S. Aswathi
    Ravi S. Jakka
    Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 2024, 83
  • [3] Epistemic Uncertainties in Structural Modeling: A Blind Benchmark for Seismic Assessment of Slender Masonry Towers
    Bartoli, Gianni
    Betti, Michele
    Biagini, Paolo
    Borghini, Andrea
    Ciavattone, Alberto
    Girardi, Maria
    Lancioni, Giovanni
    Marra, Antonino Maria
    Ortolani, Barbara
    Pintucchi, Barbara
    Salvatori, Luca
    JOURNAL OF PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTED FACILITIES, 2017, 31 (05)
  • [4] Insights on the Italian Seismic Network from location uncertainties
    Salvatore Scudero
    Carlo Marcocci
    Antonino D’Alessandro
    Journal of Seismology, 2021, 25 : 1061 - 1076
  • [5] Shedding Light on the Effect of Uncertainties in the Seismic Fragility Analysis of Existing Concrete Dams
    Sevieri, Giacomo
    De Falco, Anna
    Marmo, Giovanni
    INFRASTRUCTURES, 2020, 5 (03)
  • [6] Insights on the Italian Seismic Network from location uncertainties
    Scudero, Salvatore
    Marcocci, Carlo
    D'Alessandro, Antonino
    JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY, 2021, 25 (04) : 1061 - 1076
  • [7] Quantifying Seismicity Parameter Uncertainties and Their Effects on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: A Case Study of Iran
    Milad Kowsari
    Nasrollah Eftekhari
    Andrzej Kijko
    Ehsan Yousefi Dadras
    Hamed Ghazi
    Elham Shabani
    Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2019, 176 : 1487 - 1502
  • [8] Quantifying Seismicity Parameter Uncertainties and Their Effects on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: A Case Study of Iran
    Kowsari, Milad
    Eftekhari, Nasrollah
    Kijko, Andrzej
    Dadras, Ehsan Yousefi
    Ghazi, Hamed
    Shabani, Elham
    PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS, 2019, 176 (04) : 1487 - 1502
  • [9] SEISMIC ANALYSIS OF GRAVITY DAMS .1. MODELING OF SEDIMENTS
    BOUGACHA, S
    TASSOULAS, JL
    JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING MECHANICS-ASCE, 1991, 117 (08): : 1826 - 1837
  • [10] Modeling Variability in Seismic Analysis of Concrete Gravity Dams: A Parametric Analysis of Koyna and Pine Flat Dams
    Patra, Bikram Kesharee
    Segura, Rocio L.
    Bagchi, Ashutosh
    INFRASTRUCTURES, 2024, 9 (01)