Combining serum metabolomic profiles with traditional risk factors improves 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in people with type 2 diabetes

Aims To identify a group of metabolites associated with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in people with type 2 diabetes and assess its predictive performance over-and-above a current CVD risk score (QRISK3). Methods and results A panel of 228 serum metabolites was measured at baseline in 1066 individuals with type 2 diabetes (Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study) who were then followed up for CVD over the subsequent 10 years. We applied 100 repeats of Cox least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to select metabolites with frequency >90% as components for a metabolites-based risk score (MRS). The predictive performance of the MRS was assessed in relation to a reference model that was based on QRISK3 plus prevalent CVD and statin use at baseline. Of 1021 available individuals, 255 (25.0%) developed CVD (median follow-up: 10.6 years). Twelve metabolites relating to fluid balance, ketone bodies, amino acids, fatty acids, glycolysis, and lipoproteins were selected to construct the MRS that showed positive association with 10-year cardiovascular risk following adjustment for traditional risk factors [hazard ratio (HR) 2.67; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.96, 3.64]. The c-statistic was 0.709 (95%CI 0.679, 0.739) for the reference model alone, increasing slightly to 0.728 (95%CI 0.700, 0.757) following addition of the MRS. Compared with the reference model, the net reclassification index and integrated discrimination index for the reference model plus the MRS were 0.362 (95%CI 0.179, 0.506) and 0.041 (95%CI 0.020, 0.071), respectively. Conclusion Metabolomics data might improve predictive performance of current CVD risk scores based on traditional risk factors in people with type 2 diabetes. External validation is warranted to assess the generalizability of improved CVD risk prediction using the MRS. Lay Summary This study looked at whether combining a group of new markers found in the blood (called metabolites) with traditional risk factors (such as high blood pressure and obesity) could more accurately predict how likely people with type 2 diabetes are to develop cardiovascular diseases in the next 10 years. Key findingsTwelve metabolites (including amino acids and lipids) showed strong association with 10-year cardiovascular risk in people with type 2 diabetes, and a metabolites-based risk score (MRS) was created by integrating these metabolites.Combining the MRS with traditional risk factors was better at predicting the risk of a person with T2D for developing cardiovascular diseases within the next 10 years than using traditional risk factors alone.