Long-term trends in juvenile Mugil liza abundance in relation to selected environmental and fisheries influences in southern Brazil

Overfishing constitutes a major threat affecting marine fish population worldwide, including mullet species that have been exploited by fisheries during the reproductive migration in temperate and tropical latitudes for millennia. In the present study, we investigated the relationship of fishing intensity of mullet Mugil liza during its reproductive migration and the abundance of their juveniles in an essential nursery ground for the species in the southwest Atlantic Ocean. To carry out this analysis, we used a 23-year standardized long-term time series (1997-2019) of monthly abundance of M. liza juveniles, local/regional (water temperature, salinity, water transparency and river discharge) and global (ENSO) environmental factors, along with compilations of fishing landing data for the species. Generalized Additive Models (GAM) revealed the negative effect of fishing adult populations on the abundance of juveniles when they reach the marine surf-zone and after recruiting into the estuary. Our results reinforce the importance of adequate conservation and fishery regulation policies to prevent the species' stock from collapsing.