Does Loyalty Discourage Exit? Evidence from Post-2020 Hong Kong

In his seminal book Exit, Voice, and Loyalty, Hirschman suggests that loyal members are less likely to exit when dissatisfied with the performance of the organization. In the context of a political regime, however, we argue that loyalty may actually encourage exit because loyal members are more sensitive to the performance decline of the regime. Using an original survey conducted in Hong Kong, we show that survey respondents with a stronger local identity have greater migration intentions. We also find that the heterogeneity of perceived political changes plays a significant role as a mediator. We discuss the political implications for Hong Kong.