Propagation properties in a multi-species SIR reaction-diffusion system

被引:3
作者
Ducasse, Romain [1 ,2 ]
Nordmann, Samuel [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Paris Cite, Lab Jacques Louis LJLL L, F-75006 Paris, France
[2] Sorbonne Univ, CNRS, F-75006 Paris, France
[3] Tel Aviv Univ, Dept Appl Math, Tel Aviv, Israel
关键词
Reaction-diffusion systems; SIR models; Spreading speed; Multi-species models; Epidemiology; Threshold phenomenon; TRAVELING-WAVES; MATHEMATICAL-THEORY; INTEGRAL-EQUATIONS; ASYMPTOTIC SPEEDS; SPREAD; EPIDEMICS; THRESHOLDS; SPACE; MODEL;
D O I
10.1007/s00285-023-01950-4
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
We consider a multi-species reaction-diffusion system that arises in epidemiology to describe the spread of several strains, or variants, of a disease in a population. Our model is a natural spatial, multi-species, extension of the classical SIR model of Kermack and McKendrick. First, we study the long-time behavior of the solutions and show that there is a "selection via propagation" phenomenon: starting with N strains, only a subset of them - that we identify - propagates and invades space, with some given speeds that we compute. Then, we obtain some qualitative properties concerning the effects of the competition between the different strains on the outcome of the epidemic. In particular, we prove that the dynamics of the model is not characterized by the usual notion of basic reproduction number, which strongly differs from the classical case with one strain.
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页数:33
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