How climate change and population growth will shape attendance and human-wildlife interactions at British Columbia parks

Protected areas are important for ecological conservation while simultaneously supporting culturally and economically valuable tourism. However, excessive visitor pressure strain operations and risk human-wildlife conflict, threatening the sustainability of nature-based tourism. Thus, park managers need to know what factors underpin attendance and how these might interact to shape future attendance. Using a decade of attendance records from 249 provincial parks in British Columbia (BC), Canada, as well as 12 years of human-wildlife interactions (HWI) records at five national parks in BC, we modelled the impacts of weather conditions and population growth on park attendance and HWIs. We paired these models with climate change and population growth scenarios to generate projections of how attendance and HWIs will change throughout the century. Climate change is projected to result in more precipitation and higher temperatures, and, over this same time span, BC's population is expected to grow substantially. Based on the observed relationship between attendance and weather, parks should anticipate a marked rise in visitors and HWIs, especially during their respective peak seasons. These projections provide park managers with the information required for proactive management, ultimately contributing to the sustainability of recreation and tourism in protected areas.