Estuaries are areas that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Understanding how these impacts affect these complex environments and their uses is essential. This paper presents a work based on an analytical solution and 2DH and 3D versions of the Delft3D numerical model to simulate the Minho River estuary and its saline wedge length under climate change projections. Temperature observations at several locations in the estuary region were selected to determine which model better simulated the temperature patterns. Specific simulations were performed for the observation periods. Sixteen numerical model scenarios were proposed, considering a varying tide, different river flows, and several SLR projections based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2050 and 2100. The analytical solution was also calibrated using the numerical model solutions. The results show that although there is no relevant stratification, there was a difference in both models in which in the worst climate change scenario, the length of the saline intrusion increased up to 28 km in the 2DH model and 30 km in the 3D model. It was concluded that the 3D model results were more precise, but both configurations can provide insights into how the saline intrusion will be affected. Additionally, the excellent agreement between the analytical solution and the results of the numerical models allowed us to consider the analytical solution a helpful tool for practical applications. It was demonstrated that freshwater discharges and bed slopes are the most critical drivers for the saline intrusion length in the Minho River estuary as they have more impact than the increase in sea level. Therefore, flow regulation can be an excellent way to control saline intrusion in the future.
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Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, UtrechtDepartment of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht
Nienhuis J.H.
Kim W.
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Department of Earth System Sciences, Yonsei University, SeoulDepartment of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht
Kim W.
Milne G.A.
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Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ONDepartment of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht
Milne G.A.
Quock M.
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Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Tulane University, New Orleans, LADepartment of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht
Quock M.
Slangen A.B.A.
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Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, YersekeDepartment of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht
Slangen A.B.A.
Törnqvist T.E.
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Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Tulane University, New Orleans, LADepartment of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht
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East China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai, Peoples R ChinaEast China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai, Peoples R China
Li, Linjiang
Zhu, Jianrong
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East China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai, Peoples R ChinaEast China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai, Peoples R China
Zhu, Jianrong
Chant, Robert J.
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Rutgers State Univ, Dept Marine & Coastal Sci, New Brunswick, NJ USAEast China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai, Peoples R China
Chant, Robert J.
Wang, Chuning
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Rutgers State Univ, Dept Marine & Coastal Sci, New Brunswick, NJ USAEast China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai, Peoples R China
Wang, Chuning
Pareja-Roman, L. Fernando
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Stevens Inst Technol, Dept Civil Environm & Ocean Engn, Hoboken, NJ 07030 USAEast China Normal Univ, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Shanghai, Peoples R China
机构:
Chinese Res Inst Environm Sci, State Key Lab Environm Criteria & Risk Assessment, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
Chinese Res Inst Environm Sci, State Environm Protect Key Lab Simulat & Control G, Beijing 100012, Peoples R ChinaChinese Res Inst Environm Sci, State Key Lab Environm Criteria & Risk Assessment, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
Xiao, Han
Zhang, Zirui
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Tianjin Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Marine & Environm Sci, Tianjin, Peoples R ChinaChinese Res Inst Environm Sci, State Key Lab Environm Criteria & Risk Assessment, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
Zhang, Zirui
Tang, Yin
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Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R ChinaChinese Res Inst Environm Sci, State Key Lab Environm Criteria & Risk Assessment, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
Tang, Yin
Li, Haiming
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Tianjin Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Marine & Environm Sci, Tianjin, Peoples R ChinaChinese Res Inst Environm Sci, State Key Lab Environm Criteria & Risk Assessment, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
Li, Haiming
Tang, Qiuhong
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Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R ChinaChinese Res Inst Environm Sci, State Key Lab Environm Criteria & Risk Assessment, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
机构:
Sivas Cumhuriyet Univ, Susehri Timur Karabal Vocat Training Sch, TR-58600 Susehri, Sivas, TurkeySivas Cumhuriyet Univ, Susehri Timur Karabal Vocat Training Sch, TR-58600 Susehri, Sivas, Turkey
Sonmez, Bektas
Karaman, Sezgin
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机构:
Adnan Menderes Univ, Fac Arts & Sci, Dept Biol, TR-09010 Aydin, TurkeySivas Cumhuriyet Univ, Susehri Timur Karabal Vocat Training Sch, TR-58600 Susehri, Sivas, Turkey
Karaman, Sezgin
Turkozan, Oguz
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Adnan Menderes Univ, Fac Arts & Sci, Dept Biol, TR-09010 Aydin, TurkeySivas Cumhuriyet Univ, Susehri Timur Karabal Vocat Training Sch, TR-58600 Susehri, Sivas, Turkey