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Simulation of Saltwater Intrusion in the Minho River Estuary under Sea Level Rise Scenarios
被引:5
|作者:
Menten, Guilherme
[1
]
Melo, Willian
[1
]
Pinho, Jose
[1
]
Iglesias, Isabel
[2
]
do Carmo, Jose Antunes
[3
]
机构:
[1] Univ Minho, Ctr Terr Environm & Construct CTAC, Dept Civil Engn, P-4704553 Braga, Portugal
[2] Univ Porto, Interdisciplinary Ctr Marine & Environm Res CIIMAR, P-4450208 Matosinhos, Portugal
[3] Univ Coimbra, Fac Sci & Technol, P-3030788 Coimbra, Portugal
来源:
关键词:
climate change;
Delft3D;
saline intrusion;
Minho River estuary;
CLIMATE-CHANGE;
PLUME INTRUSION;
IMPACT;
NW;
D O I:
10.3390/w15132313
中图分类号:
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号:
08 ;
0830 ;
摘要:
Estuaries are areas that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Understanding how these impacts affect these complex environments and their uses is essential. This paper presents a work based on an analytical solution and 2DH and 3D versions of the Delft3D numerical model to simulate the Minho River estuary and its saline wedge length under climate change projections. Temperature observations at several locations in the estuary region were selected to determine which model better simulated the temperature patterns. Specific simulations were performed for the observation periods. Sixteen numerical model scenarios were proposed, considering a varying tide, different river flows, and several SLR projections based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2050 and 2100. The analytical solution was also calibrated using the numerical model solutions. The results show that although there is no relevant stratification, there was a difference in both models in which in the worst climate change scenario, the length of the saline intrusion increased up to 28 km in the 2DH model and 30 km in the 3D model. It was concluded that the 3D model results were more precise, but both configurations can provide insights into how the saline intrusion will be affected. Additionally, the excellent agreement between the analytical solution and the results of the numerical models allowed us to consider the analytical solution a helpful tool for practical applications. It was demonstrated that freshwater discharges and bed slopes are the most critical drivers for the saline intrusion length in the Minho River estuary as they have more impact than the increase in sea level. Therefore, flow regulation can be an excellent way to control saline intrusion in the future.
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页数:17
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