Modeling a Century of Change: Kangerlussuaq Glacier's Mass Loss From 1933 to 2021

被引:2
作者
Lippert, E. Y. H. [1 ]
Morlighem, M. [2 ]
Cheng, G. [2 ]
Khan, S. A. [1 ]
机构
[1] Tech Univ Denmark, DTU Space, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
[2] Dartmouth Coll, Dept Earth Sci, Hanover, NH USA
关键词
GREENLAND ICE-SHEET; JAKOBSHAVN ISBRAE; GLACIER DYNAMICS; BALANCE;
D O I
10.1029/2023GL106286
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Kangerlussuaq Glacier (KG) is a major contributor to central-eastern Greenland mass loss, but existing estimates of its mass balance over the last century are inconsistent, and specific drivers of change remain poorly understood. We present a novel approach that combines numerical modeling and a 1933-2021 climate forcing to reconstruct its mass balance over the past century. The model's final state aligns remarkably well with present-day observations. The model reveals a total ice mass loss of 285 Gt over the past century, equivalent to 0.68 mm global sea level rise, 51% of which occurred since 2003 alone. Dynamic thinning from ice front retreat is responsible for 88% of mass change since 1933, with short-term ice front variations having minimal impact on centennial mass loss. Compared to earlier studies, our findings suggest that KG lost 59% (or 301 Gt) less mass over the century than previously thought. Kangerlussuaq Glacier (KG) is a primary source of mass loss from the central-eastern sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Despite various efforts, there is still disagreement on how much mass KG has lost over the past century and the reason for the mass loss. We used computer models and climate data to determine that the glacier has lost 285 billion metric tons of ice over the last 100 years. That is enough to raise global sea levels by about two-thirds of a millimeter. Over half of this ice loss has happened in the last 20 years, and the rates of mass loss in the past two decades were significantly higher than for most of the last century. While the ice front of the glacier can retreat without losing mass, if the snowfall is significant enough, we found that most ice loss was related to the glacier retreating. This new estimate of ice loss is 59% lower than previous studies suggested, showing that the glacier's decline is less severe than we thought. Dynamic thinning due to the retreat of the ice front explains 88% of the mass loss since 1933 Short-term variability in the ice front has a lesser impact on the mass balance on centennial time scales Kangerlussuaq Glacier lost 59% (or 301 Gt) less mass over the century than previously thought
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页数:10
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