Predictive value of lesion morphology in rectal cancer based on MRI before surgery

Objective To explore the relationship of MRI morphology of primary rectal cancer with extramural vascular invasion (EMVI), metastasis and local recurrence. Materials and methods This retrospective study included 153 patients with rectal cancer. Imaging factors and histopathological index including nodular projection (NP), cord sign (CS) at primary tumor margin, irregular nodules (IN) of mesorectum, MRI-detected peritoneal reflection invasion (PRI), range of rectal wall invasion (RRWI), patterns and length of tumor growth, maximal extramural depth (EMD), histologically confirmed local node involvement (hLN), MRI T stage, MRI N stage, MRI-detected extramural vascular invasion (mEMVI) and histologically confirmed extramural vascular invasion (hEMVI) were evaluated. Determining the relationship between imaging factors and hEMVI, synchronous metastasis and local recurrence by univariate analysis and multivariable logistic regression, and a nomogram validated internally via Bootstrap self-sampling was constructed based on the latter. Results Thirty-eight cases of hEMVI, fourteen cases of synchronous metastasis and ten cases of local recurrence were observed among 52 NP cases. There were 50 cases of mEMVI with moderate consistency with hEMVI (Kappa = 0.614). NP, CS, EMD and mEMVI showed statistically significant differences in the negative and positive groups of hEMVI, synchronous metastasis, and local recurrence. Compared to patients with local mass growth, the rectal tumor with circular infiltration had been found to be at higher risk of synchronous metastasis and local recurrence (P < 0.05). NP and IN remained as significant predictors for hEMVI, and mEMVI was a predictor for synchronous metastasis, while PRI and mEMVI were predictors for local recurrences. The nomogram for predicting hEMVI demonstrated a C-index of 0.868, sensitivity of 86.0%, specificity of 79.6%, and accuracy of 81.7%. Conclusion NP, CS, IN, large EMD, mEMVI, and circular infiltration are significantly associated with several adverse prognostic indicators. The nomogram based on NP has good predictive performance for preoperative EMVI. mEMVI is a risk factor for synchronous metastasis. PRI and mEMVI are risk factors for local recurrence.