Decomposition and decoupling analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in electricity generation by primary fossil fuels in Turkey

Nowadays, one of the vital problems for humanity is reducing the use of fossil fuels to decrease carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Despite the integration of renewable sources into modern electric power systems, the majority of electricity is still being produced by utilizing fossil fuels. In this study, decomposition and decoupling analyses were performed for Turkey's CO2 emissions due to the generation of electricity from primary fossil fuels from 1990 to 2020. For this purpose, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition and the Tapio decoupling models were implemented. The results indicated that the main factor leading to CO2 emissions is economic activity with a contribution of 61.5%. While the effects of population, electricity intensity, and energy intensity had negative impacts; emission factor, generation structure, and electricity trade had positive impacts. The most dominant source of primary fossil fuels was coal. During the study period, weak decoupling was determined to be the most frequent decoupling state. Also, negative decoupling was observed in the last 5 years, except for 2018-2019. Based on these findings, instead of energy policies that support the use of coal, it is suggested to develop new energy policies that will increase the share of non-fossil fuels in the energy mix.