Prognostic prediction of left ventricular myocardial noncompaction using machine learning and cardiac magnetic resonance radiomics

Background: Although there are many studies on the prognostic factors of left ventricular myocardial noncompaction (LVNC), the determinants are varied and not entirely consistent. This study aimed to build predictive models using radiomics features and machine learning to predict major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with LVNC.Methods: In total, 96 patients with LVNC were included and randomly divided into training and test cohorts. A total of 105 cine cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR)-derived radiomics features and 35 clinical characteristics were extracted. Five different oversampling algorithms were compared for selection of the optimal imbalanced processing. Feature importance was assessed with extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). We compared the performance of 5 machine learning classification methods with different sample:feature ratios to determine the optimal hybrid classification strategy. Subsequently, radiomics, clinical, and combined radiomics-clinical models were developed and compared.Results: The machine learning pipeline included an adaptive synthetic (ADASYN) algorithm for imbalanced processing, XGBoost feature selection with a sample:feature ratio of 10, and support vector machine (SVM) modeling. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of the radiomics model, clinical model, and combined model in the validation cohort were 0.87 (sensitivity 83.33%, specificity 64.29%), 0.65 (sensitivity 16.67%, specificity 78.57%), and 0.92 (specificity 33.33%, sensitivity 100.00%), respectively. The radiomics model performed similarly to the clinical and combined models (P=0.124 and P=0.621, respectively). The performance of the combined model was significantly better than that of the clinical model (P=0.003).Conclusions: The machine learning-based cine CMR radiomics model performed well at predicting MACEs in patients with LVNC. Adding radiomics features offered incremental prognostic value over clinical factors alone.