Photovoltaic systems and sustainable communities: New social models for ecological transition. The impact of incentive policies in profitability analyses

The issue of energy independence and sustainability are two major challenges in energy decision-making models. Prosumer development and sustainable community models are identified as drivers to achieve the ecological transition. This work proposes an economic analysis based on Net Present Value (NPV) also supported by the assessment of alternative scenarios (sensitivity, scenario and risk analysis). This study concerns a photovoltaic (PV) plant located in a mature market (Italy) under a collective self-consumption (CSC) scheme.The first aim is to assess the profitability of a PV plant by considering different political (tax deduction, subsidies) and market (purchase price, selling price) contexts. The results show significant economic returns with very modest levels of risk. The NPV varies in the range 2136-8084 euro /kW in the baseline policy scenario and 1919-7868 euro /kW in the alternative policy scenario, and thus the variations in NPV are more significant in the market scenarios than in the policy scenarios.The second aim seeks to propose how benefits among renewable self-consumers can be divided, and three scenarios are proposed for a CSC scheme: i) revenues split equally; ii) revenues shared entirely according to energy consumption profile and iii) revenues shared according to a partial energy consumption profile. The share of self-consumption plays a key role, but soaring energy costs also push prosumers to make a choice for the future and make their contribution to the development of a sustainable community.