Cone-beam computed-tomography-based delta-radiomic analysis for investigating prognostic power for esophageal squamous cell cancer patients undergoing concurrent chemoradiotherapy

Purpose: To investigate the prognostic power of cone-beam computed-tomography (CBCT)-based delta-radiomics in esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESCC) patients treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT).Methods: We collected data from 26 ESCC patients treated with CCRT. CBCT images acquired at five time points (1st-5th week) per patient during CCRT were used in this study. Radiomic features were extracted from the five CBCT images on the gross tumor volumes. Then, 17 delta-radiomic feature sets derived from five types of calculations were obtained for all the cases. Leave-one-out cross-validation was applied to investigate the prognostic power of CBCT-based delta-radiomic features. Feature selection and construction of a prediction model using Coxnet were performed using training samples. Then, the test sample was classified into high or low risk in each cross-validation fold. Survival analysis for the two groups were performed to evaluate the prognostic power of the extracted CBCT-based delta-radiomic features.Results: Four delta-radiomic feature sets indicated significant differences between the high- and low-risk groups (p < 0.05). The highest C-index in the 17 delta-radiomic feature sets was 0.821 (95 % confidence interval, 0.735-0.907). That feature set had p-value of the log-rank test and hazard ratio of 0.003 and 4.940 (95 % confidence interval, 1.391-17.544), respectively.Conclusions: We investigated the potential of using CBCT-based delta-radiomics for prognosis of ESCC patients treated with CCRT. It was demonstrated that delta-radiomic feature sets based on the absolute value of relative difference obtained from the early to the middle treatment stages have high prognostic power for ESCC.