Population longitudinal analysis of Gait Profile Score and North Star Ambulatory Assessment in children with Duchenne muscular dystrophy

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a rare X-linked recessive disorder characterized by loss-of-function mutations in the gene encoding dystrophin. These mutations lead to progressive functional deterioration including muscle weakness, respiratory insufficiency, and musculoskeletal deformities. Three-dimensional gait analysis (3DGA) has been used as a tool to analyze gait pathology through the quantification of altered joint kinematics, kinetics, and muscle activity patterns. Among 3DGA indices, the Gait Profile Score (GPS), has been used as a sensitive overall measure to detect clinically relevant changes in gait patterns in children with DMD. To enhance our understanding of the clinical translation of 3DGA, we report here the development of a population nonlinear mixed-effect model that jointly describes the disease progression of the 3DGA index, GPS, and the functional endpoint, North Star Ambulatory Assessment (NSAA). The final model consists of a quadratic structure for GPS progression and a linear structure for GPS-NSAA correlation. Our model was able to capture the improvement in function in GPS and NSAA in younger subjects, as well as the decline of function in older subjects. Furthermore, the model predicted NSAA (CFB) at 1 year reasonably well for DMD subjects <= 7 years old at baseline. The model tended to slightly underpredict the decline in NSAA after 1 year for those >7 years old at baseline, but the prediction summary statistics were well maintained within the standard deviation of observed data. Quantitative models such as this may help answer clinically relevant questions to facilitate the development of novel therapies in DMD.