Two decades of endemic dengue in Bangladesh (2000-2022): trends, seasonality, and impact of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics

被引：5

作者：

Hasan, Mohammad Nayeem ^{[1
]}

Khalil, Ibrahim ^{[2
]}

Chowdhury, Muhammad Abdul Baker ^{[3
]}

Rahman, Mahbubur ^{[4
,5
]}

Asaduzzaman, Md ^{[6
]}

Billah, Masum ^{[6
]}

Banu, Laila Arjuman ^{[7
]}

Alam, Mahbub-Ul ^{[8
]}

Ahsan, Atik ^{[8
]}

Traore, Tieble ^{[9
]}

Uddin, Md Jamal ^{[10
]}

Galizi, Roberto ^{[11
]}

Russo, Ilaria ^{[12
]}

Zumla, Alimuddin ^{[13
,14
]}

Haider, Najmul ^{[11
]}

机构：

[1] Shahjalal Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Stat, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh

[2] Minist Fisheries & Livestock, Dept Livestock Serv, Dhaka, Bangladesh

[3] Univ Florida, Coll Med, Dept Neurosurg, Gainesville, FL 32610 USA

[4] Univ London, Royal Vet Coll, Hawkshead Lane, Hatfield, Herts, England

[5] Minist Hlth & Family Welf, Inst Epidemiol Dis Control & Res IEDCR, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh

[6] Staffordshire Univ, Sch Digital Technol & Arts DTA, Stoke On trent ST4 2DE, England

[7] Bangabandhu Sheik Mujib Med Univ, Dept Anat, Dhaka, Bangladesh

[8] Int Ctr Diarrhoeal Dis Res Bangladesh ICDDR B, Environm Intervent Unit, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh

[9] WHO Reg Off Africa, Emergency Preparedness & Response Programme, Dakar Hub, Dakar, Senegal

[10] Daffodil Int Univ, Dept Gen Educ & Dev, Dhaka, Bangladesh

[11] Keele Univ, Fac Nat Sci, Sch Life Sci, Keele ST5 5BG, Staffs, England

[12] Keele Univ, Fac Med & Hlth Sci, Sch Med, Keele ST5 5BG, Staffs, England

[13] UCL, Ctr Clin Microbiol, Div Infect & Immun, London, England

[14] Univ Coll London Hosp, NIHR BRC, London, England

来源：

JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY | 2024年 / 61卷 / 02期

基金：

美国国家卫生研究院;

关键词：

dengue; Bangladesh; climate change; temperature; rainfall; DISEASE; DHAKA; EPIDEMIOLOGY;

D O I：

10.1093/jme/tjae001

中图分类号：

Q96 [昆虫学];

学科分类号：

摘要：

The objectives of this study were to compare dengue virus (DENV) cases, deaths, case-fatality ratio [CFR], and meteorological parameters between the first and the recent decades of this century (2000-2010 vs. 2011-2022) and to describe the trends, seasonality, and impact of change of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics of dengue in Bangladesh. For the period 2000-2022, dengue cases and death data from Bangladesh's Ministry of Health and Family Welfare's website, and meteorological data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department were analyzed. A Poisson regression model was performed to identify the impact of meteorological parameters on the monthly dengue cases. A forecast of dengue cases was performed using an autoregressive integrated moving average model. Over the past 23 yr, a total of 244,246 dengue cases were reported including 849 deaths (CFR = 0.35%). The mean annual number of dengue cases increased 8 times during the second decade, with 2,216 cases during 2000-2010 vs. 18,321 cases during 2011-2022. The mean annual number of deaths doubled (21 vs. 46), but the overall CFR has decreased by one-third (0.69% vs. 0.23%). Concurrently, the annual mean temperature increased by 0.49 degrees C, and rainfall decreased by 314 mm with altered precipitation seasonality. Monthly mean temperature (Incidence risk ratio [IRR]: 1.26), first-lagged rainfall (IRR: 1.08), and second-lagged rainfall (IRR: 1.17) were significantly associated with monthly dengue cases. The increased local temperature and changes in rainfall seasonality might have contributed to the increased dengue cases in Bangladesh.

引用

页码：345 / 353

页数：9