From rhetoric to regulation: inferring lobbying influence on EU efforts to regulate CO2 emissions of cars using network analysis

This study shows how the automotive industry was able to influence the final legislation of the Community Strategy to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles, even though the European Commission's introductory comments were supported by a competing interest group coalition: environmentalist NGOs. To operationalize and analyze the influence of lobbying on the EU policy formulation process, I utilize an approach not yet widely used in interest group research: discourse network analysis and inferential network analysis with exponential random graph models. This methodological combination allows me to parse the political debate within different phases of the EU policy process to gain insights into how automotive lobbyists were able to shape the final legislation in accordance with their interests and which political decision-makers empowered them to do so. Surprisingly, the party affiliation of Members of the European Parliament played only a subordinate role, whereas the origin of the MEPs was a significant predic-tor of whether they supported the proposals of environmentalist NGOs or the auto -motive industry. The latter's proposals were adopted in the European Commission's proposal and subsequently in the final regulation. Since the method can be easily applied to case studies from different policy areas, it provides a promising frame-work for the analysis of EU lobbying in general. Moreover, the network approach is easily extendable, allowing future research to integrate different strands of EU lob-bying research that go beyond influence analysis.