A new fistula risk score using sarcopenic obesity and subcutaneous fat area for predicting postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

Background/Purpose: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a serious complication of pancreaticoduodenectomy and current predictors of POPF are inadequate. We developed a new fistula score to more accurately predict POPF. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 169 patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy between January 2010 and August 2021 at our institution and examined patients' risk factors according to the occurrence of grade B/C POPF. Muscle and fat were assessed on preoperative computed tomography images and cutoff values were determined by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results: Grade B/C POPF occurred in 38 (22.5%) patients. Multivariate analysis of patients' risk factors revealed that sarcopenic obesity (odds ratio [OR] 2.94; p = .033), L3 subcutaneous fat area (SFA) & GE; 98.0 cm(2) (OR 2.69; p = .049), and soft pancreatic texture (OR 27.5; p = .002) were independent risk factors of grade B/C POPF occurrence. In addition, a new fistula risk score based on these factors revealed that 63.6% of patients with high scores developed grade B/C POPF, while those with negligible or low scores did not. Conclusions: A new fistula risk scoring system based on sarcopenic obesity, SFA, and pancreatic texture may accurately predict POFP.