Improved QSAR models for PARP-1 inhibition using data balancing, interpretable machine learning, and matched molecular pair analysis

The poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase-1 (PARP-1) enzyme is an important target in the treatment of breast cancer. Currently, treatment options include the drugs Olaparib, Niraparib, Rucaparib, and Talazoparib; however, these drugs can cause severe side effects including hematological toxicity and cardiotoxicity. Although in silico models for the prediction of PARP-1 activity have been developed, the drawbacks of these models include low specificity, a narrow applicability domain, and a lack of interpretability. To address these issues, a comprehensive machine learning (ML)-based quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) approach for the informed prediction of PARP-1 activity is presented. Classification models built using the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) for data balancing gave robust and predictive models based on the K-nearest neighbor algorithm (accuracy 0.86, sensitivity 0.88, specificity 0.80). Regression models were built on structurally congeneric datasets, with the models for the phthalazinone class and fused cyclic compounds giving the best performance. In accordance with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) guidelines, a mechanistic interpretation is proposed using the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) to identify the important topological features to differentiate between PARP-1 actives and inactives. Moreover, an analysis of the PARP-1 dataset revealed the prevalence of activity cliffs, which possibly negatively impacts the model's predictive performance. Finally, a set of chemical transformation rules were extracted using the matched molecular pair analysis (MMPA) which provided mechanistic insights and can guide medicinal chemists in the design of novel PARP-1 inhibitors.