Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process for Flood Risk Analysis: A Case Study in Kucuk Aksu River Basin (Antalya, Turkey)

Floods are one of the most common natural disasters that occur in almost all parts of the world. It is predicted that the risk of flooding will be much higher in the future, especially with the increase in extreme precipitation due to global climate change. To minimize the flood risks, first of all, regional flood risk maps should be created, and hydraulic modeling studies should be carried out for the identified hazardous regions. In this study, the flood risk potential of the Kucuk Aksu Basin, which is the sub-basin of the Antalya Basin, and one of the rainiest basins in Turkey, was determined. In this study, slope, rainfall, flow accumulation, distance from drainage, land use, soil, and aquifer type parameters were used to define flood risk of the study area. These parameters are the most important parameters in determining the flood risk. Geographical information system-based analytical hierarchy process was used to determine the priority importance of these parameters. It was determined that a large part of the Kucuk Aksu River basin is in the high-risk group in terms of flood risk potential. In particular, 3.66 ha of settlement area and 28.09 ha of the agricultural area were included in the very high-risk group in the basin, while 21.82 ha of settlement area and 249.66 ha of the agricultural area were found to be in the high-risk group. Hence, potential flood risks should be reduced by making current and future land-use plans more adequate.