Methylated ctDNA predicts early recurrence risk in patients undergoing resection of initially unresectable colorectal cancer liver metastases

Background: Patients with initially unresectable colorectal cancer liver metastases (IU-CRLM) might benefit from using an effective systemic treatment followed by resection of liver metastases but the curative success rate is quite low. Indeed, nearly one-third of patients exhibit early recurrence within the first 6 months after surgery, and these individuals often have poor overall survival. Objectives: This study aims to clarify the application value of serial circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis in predicting the clinical outcome of IU-CRLM patients following liver metastasectomy. Design: A retrospective study was conducted on a cohort of patients with IU-CRLM between February 2018 and April 2021. Methods: Plasma samples at different time points during CRLM treatment [baseline (BL), preoperation (PRE), postoperation (POST), end-of-treatment (EOT), and progressive disease (PD)] were retrospectively collected from patients with initially unresectable CRLM enrolled at the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center. Dynamic changes of SEPTIN 9 (SEPT9) and Neuropeptide Y (NPY) methylated circulating tumor DNA (MetctDNA) levels in serial plasma samples were detected using droplet-digital PCR (ddPCR). Results: SEPT9 and NPY genes were hypermethylated in colon cancer cell lines and tissues while no difference was observed between primary and metastatic tumors. Patients with MetctDNA positive at POST or EOT had significantly lower recurrence-free survival (RFS) compared to patients with MetctDNA negative at these time points [POST: Hazard ratio (HR) 9.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.15-17.30, p < 0.001; EOT: HR 11.48, 95% CI 3.27-40.31, p < 0.001]. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that POST (OR 33.96, 95% CI 4.03-286.10, p = 0.001) and EOT (OR 18.36, 95% CI 1.14-295.71, p = 0.04) MetctDNA was an independent risk factor for early recurrence. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (T-ROC) analysis revealed that area under the curve (AUC) value was greatest at the relapse time point of 6 months post-intervention, with POST-AUC and EOT-AUC values of 0.74 (95% CI 0.66-0.81) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.53-0.94), respectively. Serial MetctDNA analysis showed that RFS was significantly lower in patients with no MetctDNA clearance compared with those with MetctDNA clearance (HR 26.05, 95% CI 4.92-137.81, p < 0.001). Conclusion: Our study confirmed that serial ctDNA analysis of NPY and SEPT9 gene methylation could effectively predict early recurrence in IU-CRLM patients, especially at POST and EOT.