The impact of geopolitical risks and international relations on inbound tourism--evidence from China and key source countries

Good international relations are the foundation of inbound tourism. Countries take cooperative or confrontational actions based on the judgment of geopolitical risks, which are perceived as hostile or favorable by residents through official media publicity, thus affecting inbound tourism. This paper uses panel data from 1999 to 2018 for 10 tourist source countries of China, and uses the Tourism Gravity Model to study the impact of international relations and geopolitical risks on inbound tourism. The paper also analyzes the moderating effect of geopolitical risks on international relations affecting inbound tourism. The results show that good international relations have a significant role in promoting inbound tourism; however, geopolitical risks have a significant negative impact on inbound tourism. Geopolitical risks significantly weaken the positive effect of international relations on inbound tourism. Policy-makers should be aware of the geopolitical media climate and strengthen the maintenance of good international relations to promote inbound tourism development.