Prognostic Performance of Initial Clinical Examination in Predicting Good Neurological Outcome in Cardiac Arrest Patients Treated with Targeted Temperature Management

Prognostication studies of cardiac arrest patients have mainly focused on poor neurological outcomes. However, an optimistic prognosis for good outcome could provide both justification to maintain and escalate treatment and evidence-based support to persuade family members or legal surrogates after cardiac arrest. The aim of the study was to evaluate the utility of clinical examinations performed after return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) in predicting good neurological outcomes in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients treated with targeted temperature management (TTM). This retrospective study included OHCA patients treated with TTM from 2009 to 2021. Initial clinical examination findings related to the Glasgow coma scale (GCS) motor score, pupillary light reflex, corneal reflex (CR) and breathing above the set ventilator rate were assessed immediately after ROSC and before the initiation of TTM. The primary outcome was good neurological outcome at 6 months after cardiac arrest. Of 350 patients included in the analysis, 119 (34%) experienced a good neurological outcome at 6 months after cardiac arrest. Among the parameters of the initial clinical examinations, specificity was the highest for the GCS motor score, and sensitivity was the highest for breathing above the set ventilator rate. A GCS motor score of >2 had a sensitivity of 42.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 33.0-51.4) and a specificity of 96.5% (95% CI = 93.3-98.5). Breathing above the set ventilator rate had a sensitivity of 84.0% (95% CI = 76.2-90.1) and a specificity of 69.7% (95% CI = 63.3-75.6). As the number of positive responses increased, the proportion of patients with good outcomes increased. Consequently, 87.0% of patients for whom all four examinations were positive experienced good outcomes. As a result, the initial clinical examinations predicted good neurological outcomes with a sensitivity of 42.0-84.0% and a specificity of 69.7-96.5%. When more examinations with positive results are achieved, a good neurological outcome can be expected.