Modeling target-density-based cull strategies to contain foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks

被引:1
作者
Seibel, Rachel L. [1 ,2 ]
Meadows, Amanda J. [2 ,3 ]
Mundt, Christopher [2 ]
Tildesley, Michael [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Warwick, Math Inst, Coventry, England
[2] Oregon State Univ, Dept Bot & Plant Pathol, Corvallis, OR USA
[3] Ginkgo Bioworks, San Bruno, CA USA
来源
PEERJ | 2024年 / 12卷
基金
美国食品与农业研究所; 英国生物技术与生命科学研究理事会;
关键词
Disease modeling; Emerging infectious diseases; Host density; Farm demography; Foot- and-mouth disease; Livestock disease; Ring culling; GREAT-BRITAIN; EPIDEMIC; IMPACT; TRANSMISSION; NETHERLANDS; SPREAD; UK;
D O I
10.7717/peerj.16998
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Total ring depopulation is sometimes used as a management strategy for emerging infectious diseases in livestock, which raises ethical concerns regarding the potential slaughter of large numbers of healthy animals. We evaluated a farm-density-based ring culling strategy to control foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the United Kingdom (UK), which may allow for some farms within rings around infected premises (IPs) to escape depopulation. We simulated this reduced farm density, or "target density", strategy using a spatially-explicit, stochastic, state-transition algorithm. We modeled FMD spread in four counties in the UK that have different farm demographics, using 740,000 simulations in a full-factorial analysis of epidemic impact measures (i.e., culled animals, culled farms, and epidemic length) and cull strategy parameters (i.e., target farm density, daily farm cull capacity, and cull radius). All of the cull strategy parameters listed above were drivers of epidemic impact. Our simulated target density strategy was usually more effective at combatting FMD compared with traditional total ring depopulation when considering mean culled animals and culled farms and was especially effective when daily farm cull capacity was low. The differences in epidemic impact measures among the counties are likely driven by farm demography, especially differences in cattle and farm density. To prevent over-culling and the associated economic, organizational, ethical, and psychological impacts, the target density strategy may be worth considering in decision-making processes for future control of FMD and other diseases.
引用
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页数:24
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