Power transformer overload risk evaluation based on temperature rise simulation and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

The evaluation of transformer overload risk and operational safety is a systematic process. Selecting an appropriate method to accurately assess its overload operation risk is an urgent need for flexible control and safe and reliable operation of power systems. According to the thermal characteristics and state of the transformer, a method for evaluating the overload risk of transformers with improved accuracy based on temperature rise simulation calculation combined with the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) is proposed. The weights are calculated by fuzzy set theory and FAHP, and the overload risk of the transformer is finally determined. The method comprehensively considers the possible information conflict between the working condition data and the thermal characteristics of the structure itself, and the calculation results are accurate and the process is clear. The calculation results after substituting the actual data show that the method can accurately evaluate the overload risk and operational risk of the transformer. This method is beneficial to identify the relative importance of transformer overload risk factors, calculate transformer overload risk coefficients, and formulate transformer risk control methods.